Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method

Tebikew Dereje Alemu; Temesgen Zelalem Addis; Yenesew Mengiste Yihun

doi:doi:10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12

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Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method

Tebikew Dereje Alemu^*

, Temesgen Zelalem Addis

, Yenesew Mengiste Yihun

Published in Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering (Volume 9, Issue 5)

Received: 2 September 2024 Accepted: 14 October 2024 Published: 12 November 2024

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Abstract

Stationary rainfall intensity duration frequency curves have historically influenced urban infrastructure designs. In contrast to the stationary model, which takes constant parameters into account throughout the observation periods, the non-stationary method takes into account changes in the extreme parameters that determine the distribution of precipitation over time. The parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimator method. The best model were computed using the R-studio software by comparing information criteria then model parameters, return levels, rainfall intensity are computed. The National Meteorological Agency, situated in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, provided the essential historical rainfall data of the Debre Tabor rainfall station for this study, Tests and trends were looked for in the rainfall data. Due to its ability to produce the lowest Akaike, corrected Akaike information criteria, and diagnosis test of goodness of fitness Model Type-MV was chosen for Debre Tabor stations. The parameters of the best models were used to forecast the return levels for each of the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Because the non-stationary technique has varied intensity levels over time, the annual maximum rainfall from the best appropriate model was calculated using its exceedance probability. Using the 95% of exceedance of the return level, the highest rainfall in each fit was determined. In comparison to the stationary model, the non-stationary model produced higher rainfall intensity values. Therefore, when developing IDF curves, the non-stationary approach should be taken into consideration.

Published in	Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering (Volume 9, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12
Page(s)	151-174
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Stationary Model, Non-stationary Model, R-Studio, Debre Tabor Town, Diagnostic Test

References

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APA Style

Alemu, T. D., Addis, T. Z., Yihun, Y. M. (2024). Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method. Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, 9(5), 151-174. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12

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ACS Style

Alemu, T. D.; Addis, T. Z.; Yihun, Y. M. Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method. J. Civ. Constr. Environ. Eng. 2024, 9(5), 151-174. doi: 10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12

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AMA Style

Alemu TD, Addis TZ, Yihun YM. Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method. J Civ Constr Environ Eng. 2024;9(5):151-174. doi: 10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12

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@article{10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12,
  author = {Tebikew Dereje Alemu and Temesgen Zelalem Addis and Yenesew Mengiste Yihun},
  title = {Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method
},
  journal = {Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering},
  volume = {9},
  number = {5},
  pages = {151-174},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jccee.20240905.12},
  abstract = {Stationary rainfall intensity duration frequency curves have historically influenced urban infrastructure designs. In contrast to the stationary model, which takes constant parameters into account throughout the observation periods, the non-stationary method takes into account changes in the extreme parameters that determine the distribution of precipitation over time. The parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimator method. The best model were computed using the R-studio software by comparing information criteria then model parameters, return levels, rainfall intensity are computed. The National Meteorological Agency, situated in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, provided the essential historical rainfall data of the Debre Tabor rainfall station for this study, Tests and trends were looked for in the rainfall data. Due to its ability to produce the lowest Akaike, corrected Akaike information criteria, and diagnosis test of goodness of fitness Model Type-MV was chosen for Debre Tabor stations. The parameters of the best models were used to forecast the return levels for each of the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Because the non-stationary technique has varied intensity levels over time, the annual maximum rainfall from the best appropriate model was calculated using its exceedance probability. Using the 95% of exceedance of the return level, the highest rainfall in each fit was determined. In comparison to the stationary model, the non-stationary model produced higher rainfall intensity values. Therefore, when developing IDF curves, the non-stationary approach should be taken into consideration.
},
 year = {2024}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method

AU  - Tebikew Dereje Alemu
AU  - Temesgen Zelalem Addis
AU  - Yenesew Mengiste Yihun
Y1  - 2024/11/12
PY  - 2024
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12
T2  - Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering
JF  - Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering
JO  - Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering
SP  - 151
EP  - 174
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2637-3890
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12
AB  - Stationary rainfall intensity duration frequency curves have historically influenced urban infrastructure designs. In contrast to the stationary model, which takes constant parameters into account throughout the observation periods, the non-stationary method takes into account changes in the extreme parameters that determine the distribution of precipitation over time. The parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimator method. The best model were computed using the R-studio software by comparing information criteria then model parameters, return levels, rainfall intensity are computed. The National Meteorological Agency, situated in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, provided the essential historical rainfall data of the Debre Tabor rainfall station for this study, Tests and trends were looked for in the rainfall data. Due to its ability to produce the lowest Akaike, corrected Akaike information criteria, and diagnosis test of goodness of fitness Model Type-MV was chosen for Debre Tabor stations. The parameters of the best models were used to forecast the return levels for each of the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Because the non-stationary technique has varied intensity levels over time, the annual maximum rainfall from the best appropriate model was calculated using its exceedance probability. Using the 95% of exceedance of the return level, the highest rainfall in each fit was determined. In comparison to the stationary model, the non-stationary model produced higher rainfall intensity values. Therefore, when developing IDF curves, the non-stationary approach should be taken into consideration.

VL  - 9
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Tebikew Dereje Alemu

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0009-0000-5490-2075
Temesgen Zelalem Addis

School of Engineering, Civil Engineering Program, University of Kwazulu Natal, Derban, South Africa

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6098-9816
Yenesew Mengiste Yihun

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Contact Email

http://orcid.org/0009-0002-6966-7068

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APA Style

Alemu, T. D., Addis, T. Z., Yihun, Y. M. (2024). Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method. Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, 9(5), 151-174. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12

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ACS Style

Alemu, T. D.; Addis, T. Z.; Yihun, Y. M. Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method. J. Civ. Constr. Environ. Eng. 2024, 9(5), 151-174. doi: 10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12

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AMA Style

Alemu TD, Addis TZ, Yihun YM. Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method. J Civ Constr Environ Eng. 2024;9(5):151-174. doi: 10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12,
  author = {Tebikew Dereje Alemu and Temesgen Zelalem Addis and Yenesew Mengiste Yihun},
  title = {Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method
},
  journal = {Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering},
  volume = {9},
  number = {5},
  pages = {151-174},
  doi = {10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.jccee.20240905.12},
  abstract = {Stationary rainfall intensity duration frequency curves have historically influenced urban infrastructure designs. In contrast to the stationary model, which takes constant parameters into account throughout the observation periods, the non-stationary method takes into account changes in the extreme parameters that determine the distribution of precipitation over time. The parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimator method. The best model were computed using the R-studio software by comparing information criteria then model parameters, return levels, rainfall intensity are computed. The National Meteorological Agency, situated in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, provided the essential historical rainfall data of the Debre Tabor rainfall station for this study, Tests and trends were looked for in the rainfall data. Due to its ability to produce the lowest Akaike, corrected Akaike information criteria, and diagnosis test of goodness of fitness Model Type-MV was chosen for Debre Tabor stations. The parameters of the best models were used to forecast the return levels for each of the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Because the non-stationary technique has varied intensity levels over time, the annual maximum rainfall from the best appropriate model was calculated using its exceedance probability. Using the 95% of exceedance of the return level, the highest rainfall in each fit was determined. In comparison to the stationary model, the non-stationary model produced higher rainfall intensity values. Therefore, when developing IDF curves, the non-stationary approach should be taken into consideration.
},
 year = {2024}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Debre Tabor Town, Ethiopia Using Non-stationary Method

AU  - Tebikew Dereje Alemu
AU  - Temesgen Zelalem Addis
AU  - Yenesew Mengiste Yihun
Y1  - 2024/11/12
PY  - 2024
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12
T2  - Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering
JF  - Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering
JO  - Journal of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering
SP  - 151
EP  - 174
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2637-3890
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jccee.20240905.12
AB  - Stationary rainfall intensity duration frequency curves have historically influenced urban infrastructure designs. In contrast to the stationary model, which takes constant parameters into account throughout the observation periods, the non-stationary method takes into account changes in the extreme parameters that determine the distribution of precipitation over time. The parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimator method. The best model were computed using the R-studio software by comparing information criteria then model parameters, return levels, rainfall intensity are computed. The National Meteorological Agency, situated in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, provided the essential historical rainfall data of the Debre Tabor rainfall station for this study, Tests and trends were looked for in the rainfall data. Due to its ability to produce the lowest Akaike, corrected Akaike information criteria, and diagnosis test of goodness of fitness Model Type-MV was chosen for Debre Tabor stations. The parameters of the best models were used to forecast the return levels for each of the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Because the non-stationary technique has varied intensity levels over time, the annual maximum rainfall from the best appropriate model was calculated using its exceedance probability. Using the 95% of exceedance of the return level, the highest rainfall in each fit was determined. In comparison to the stationary model, the non-stationary model produced higher rainfall intensity values. Therefore, when developing IDF curves, the non-stationary approach should be taken into consideration.

VL  - 9
IS  - 5
ER  -

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